New paper from C.M.A.P 

Estimation de la polarisation d'un faisceau d'\'{e}lectrons
par intervalle de confiance asymptotique ou exact
author:Jean-Louis PHILOCHE et Michel VIOT
date: octobre 1993

Keywords and phrases :Poisson processes, exponential inequalities, 
asymptotic and exact confidence intervals.

 AMS 1985 subject classification :62F10 and 62F12



On etudie le probleme de l'estimation de la polarisation p d'un 
faisceau d'electrons. On commence par formuler un modele probabiliste simple. 
Puis on etablit plusieurs proprietes utiles de l'estimateur usuel
p; on obtient ensuite un premier intervalle de confiance asymptotique. 
A distance finie, on evalue numeriquement le veritable niveau de cet intervalle,
ainsi que de l'une de ces ameliorations. Utilisant ensuite des inegalites
exponentielles (Bernstein, Bennett, Chernoff et Hoeffding) on obtient plusieurs
intervalles de confiance exacts, sous des a priori physiques realistes ; on evalue
egalement numeriquement le niveau veritable du meilleur d'entre eux.


Abstract

We study the problem of estimating the polarization p
of a particular beam of electrons.
We begin by establishing a simple probabilistic model.
Then several useful properties of the usual estimator p
are derived and a first asymptotic confidence interval is obtained.
Numerical evaluations of the real level of this interval at finite 
distances and of one of its improvements are given. Through exponential 
inequalities (Bernstein, Bennett, Chernoff and Hoeffding) several
exact confidence intervals will be given under realistic physical assumptions.
As above, the best confidence interval is numerically evaluated.




The whole paper is available as a compressed Postscript file by internet
procedure FTP anonymous on host barbes.polytechnique.fr ( 129.104.4.100)
in the directory pub/RI/1993 under the name

          
             philoche_viot.286.oct.93.ps.gz