- 13h30-14h30 Razeeh Sainudiin: Approximate Bayesian Computations Done Exactly;
- 15h-16h Pierre Collet et Sylvie Méléard, École Polytechnique: Dynamiques adaptatives pour les populations diploides;
- 16h30-17h30 Nicolas Champagnat: Grandes et vieilles familles dans des "splitting trees" sur-critiques avec mutations neutres poissonniennes;
- 20h Diner.

- 9h10-10h10 Jean-Stéphane Dhersin: Modèles épidémiologiques sur les graphes;
- 10h40-11h40 Peter Pfaffelhuber: The tree-valued Fleming-Viot process with mutation and selection;
- 11h55-12h30 Chunmao Huang: Moments, large and moderate deviations for a branching process in a random environment;
- 14h-15h Julien Berestycki: Processus de points stationnaires à l'avant du mouvement Brownien branchant;
- 15h30: Discussion.

- on the 8th of February at the École Polytechnique, Amphithéâtre Sauvy, near the main Hall, on the way from the RER and bus station (bus stop: Polytechnique-Lozère) key-card not needed;
- on the 9th of February at the University Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC, métro Jussieu), building 15-16 room 101 (1st floor).

- Razeeh Sainudiin : Evaluating the likelihood function of parameters in highly-structured population genetic models from extant deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) sequences is computationally prohibitive. In such cases, one may approximately infer the parameters from summary statistics of the data such as the site-frequency-spectrum (SFS) or its linear combinations. Such methods are known as approximate likelihood or Bayesian computations. Using a controlled lumped Markov chain and computational commutative algebraic methods we compute the exact likelihood of the SFS and many classical linear combinations of it at a non-recombining locus that is neutrally evolving under the infi™nitely-many-sites mutation model. Using a partially ordered graph of coalescent experiments around the SFS we provide a decision-theoretic framework for approximate sufficiency. We also extend a family of classical hypothesis tests of standard neutrality at a non-recombining locus based on the SFS to a more powerful version that conditions on the topological information provided by the SFS. Keywords: controlled lumped Markov chain, unlabelled coalescent, random integer partition sequences, partially ordered experiments, population genomic inference population genetic Markov bases, approximate Bayesian computation done exactly.
- Chunmao Huang : Let Z_n be a supercritical branching process in a random environment and W be the limit of the normalized population size. We show large and moderate deviation principles for the sequence log Z_n (with appropriate normalization). For the proof, we calculate the critical value for the existence of harmonic moments of W, and show an equivalence for all the moments of Z_n. A central limit theorem is also established.

Last modified: 25 Jan. 2011